How Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia can win the 2024 MotoGP title in Barcelona GP

The MotoGP title fight is set to be decided in Sunday’s showdown in Barcelona. Here’s how the two contenders can be crowned champion in the finale

Pramac rider Jorge Martin goes into the Barcelona Grand Prix with a reduced - but still substantial - 19-point lead over factory Ducati rival Francesco Bagnaia.

What was a 24-point lead was trimmed down to just 19 by Bagnaia following his impressive performance in the sprint race on Saturday, in which he converted pole position into a seventh half-distance race victory of 2024.

The Italian was aided by his team-mate Enea Bastianini, who snatched second place from Martin with a brilliant move at Turn 5 on the final lap. It made a difference of two points to Martin’s tally, which could play a big role in Sunday’s finale.

As with every grand prix, 25 points are on offer in the Barcelona GP, meaning Martin is still the favourite to lift the championship trophy in his last race with Pramac and Ducati.

The Spaniard only needs to finish inside the top nine on Sunday to be crowned champion, irrespective of how Bagnaia fares in the race.

If Bagnaia fails to score an 11th win of 2024 in Barcelona, Martin can clinch the title by finishing as low as 14th place.

If both Martin and Bagnaia end up level on points on Sunday, which is possible if Bagnaia wins and Martin finishes 10th, then the title will go to the factory Ducati rider on countback (he would have 11 wins to Martin’s three).

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team, Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

How Jorge Martin can win the 2024 MotoGP title in Barcelona GP

Martin	Bagnaia
If Martin wins	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes second	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes third	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes fourth	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes fifth	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes sixth	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes seventh	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes eighth	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes ninth	Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
If Martin finishes 10th	Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 11th	Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 12th	Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 13th	Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 14th	Bagnaia must finish second or lower
If Martin finishes 15th	Bagnaia must finish third or lower
If Martin finishes outside of the points	Bagnaia must finish third or lower

How Francesco Bagnaia can win the 2024 MotoGP title in Barcelona GP

The odds are against Bagnaia clinching a third successive premier class title in 2024. Bagnaia must finish inside the top two in order to overcome a 19-point deficit to Martin in the title fight.

Bagnaia	Martin
If Bagnaia wins	Martin must finish lower 10th or lower
If Bagnaia finishes second	Martin must finish 15th or lower
If Bagnaia finishes third or lower	He can’t be crowned champion